Zhongtai Chemical (002092): Even if performance load is still reluctant

Zhongtai Chemical (002092): Even if performance load is still reluctant

Incident company releases semi-annual report for 2019 The company issued a semi-annual report on August 21, 2019, reporting that the combined company company achieved operating income of 404.

52 ppm, a 47-year increase of 47.

91% (operating income excluding trade income is 97.

90 ‰, a decrease of 9 per year.

28%); realizing net profit attributable to mother 3.

74 trillion, a decrease of 69 a year.

95%.

Among them, the company achieved net profit of 1 in Q2.

86 ‰, a reduction of 77 per year.

31%.

At the same time, the company issued a forecast of its operating results for January-September 2019, which is expected to achieve a net profit of US $ 400-600 million from January to September, thereby reducing 80.

11% -70.

16%.

A brief comment on the continued decline in the industry’s prosperity, the company’s profit pressure is obviously under pressure. Recently, the chlor-alkali industry’s prosperity has continued to decline, so it is difficult for the company’s profit to be under pressure.

In terms of sub-sectors, the viscose sector (viscose fiber, viscose yarn) achieved gross profit in the first half of the year4.

USD 6.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21%, mainly due to the average prices of viscose staple fiber and viscose yarn (marketing price of cotton yarn) products Q2 were 11,837 and 16,900 yuan / ton, respectively, and Q1 were all over 1,000 yuan / ton, soAlthough the company Aral Fulida 20 inserts viscose fiber into production,四川耍耍网 the use of viscose production increases by 6 each.

36 Initially, the gross profit of related products was still significantly compressed.

In terms of chlor-alkali (PVC, caustic soda), gross profit for the first half of the year was 20 in total.

4.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. During this period, the company’s chlor-alkali plant basically operated. However, since the price of caustic soda has shifted from a high level since Q2, the average price of H1 caustic soda was 3116 yuan / ton, a decrease of 24%, thereby reducing the company’s chlor-alkali product gross profit.
In terms of expenses, the reporting expenses are company sales and the management expenses are 13 respectively.

32, 3.

69 ppm, basically the same as the same period last year, and the expense ratio continued to decline due to the expansion of trade business; financial expenses6.

90 ‰, an increase of 35 per year.

14%, mainly due to the decrease in the financial discount interest rate of the loan in the current period compared with the previous year, as well as the conversion of the company’s construction in progress and the indexing expenses.

The chlor-alkali market is stabilizing, the viscose industry is at its bottom, and leading enterprises are waiting for the dawn of chlor-alkali. The current period of rapid growth in industrial capacity has passed. Currently, only medium- and large-scale capacity under construction / planning is Jintai Chlor-Alkali and Wanhua Chemical.It is expected that the capacity growth of the 19 and 20 industries will be around 5%, which will have a limited impact on supply; and the actual new construction area downstream will still maintain a growth rate of about 10%, and the demand for chlor-alkali products will still be supported in the short to medium term.

In general, the supply and demand expanded to match. As the price of caustic soda dropped from a high point, the industry’s prosperity will stabilize in the future.

In terms of viscose, the current price of viscose staple fiber (CCFEI price index, 1) is due to the rapid expansion of annual production capacity and the price reduction strategy of the industry leader.

5D) is only 11,300 yuan / ton, which was a low point for many years, and it is far below the industry cost line.

This price level is absolutely uncertain for long-term maintenance, and it can be expected to reverse in the future.

The company has outstanding advantages in the viscose industry. Existing equity production capacity is at the forefront, Xinjiang is rich in cotton resources on the raw material side, and it has 2.7 million downstream viscose yarn production capacity.

It brings the cost advantage brought by integration. In the first half of the year, the company was in a difficult situation in the industry. The company still realized the viscose fiber and viscose yarn products separately.

07% and 12.

99% gross profit margin, still profitable after deducting expenses (and enjoy a small amount of considerable government subsidies).

The high probability of the bottom of the viscose industry is accompanied by the clearing of production capacity and industry integration. After the industry picks up, the company is expected to usher in a better industry competition on the basis of saving and continuing to grow.

Continue to promote projects under construction, continue to increase the strength of the chlor-alkali, viscose integrated industrial chain reporting chain, and the company is still actively promoting production capacity under construction, focusing on coal preparation-calcium carbide-PVC / caustic soda, and caustic soda-viscose staple fiber-viscoseThe two integrated industrial chains of rubber yarn continue to strengthen the company’s integration advantages.

Following the successful commissioning of the 20-year-old cellulose fiber project of Alara Fulida at the end of 18 years, the company is currently focusing on projects including the Toxon Energy 30 integrated high-efficiency resin industrial park and supporting facilities projects, and Xinjiang TianyuCoal chemical 500t / year coal quality clean and efficient utilization project.

At the same time, projects under construction include 2 million spindles / year spinning project of Fuli Zhenlun and 15 probes / year ion membrane caustic soda from Fukang Energy.

The progress of some projects under construction will inevitably be affected by factors such as the industry boom, but the company’s development strategy is clear in the medium and long term. Xinjiang’s support for the development of the textile industry remains unchanged. The company will continue to make the main industry bigger and stronger. Risks suggest that the price of viscose products continues to be sluggish, and the progress of capacity expansion under construction is not as good as expected. The industry’s business climate has declined. We lower the company’s 19-20 year net profit forecast to 8.

47, 12.

810,000 yuan, corresponding to PE 18X, 12X, maintaining the “overweight” level.